By Oluyinka Onigbinde
India has emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination in the second quarter of 2026, overtaking Spain, the Netherlands, the United States and other major markets, as trade with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) surged to ₦4.02 trillion.
The latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria exported goods worth ₦3.29 trillion to India in Q2 2026, representing 12.17 per cent of the country’s total exports.
Spain followed with ₦1.98 trillion, the Netherlands ₦1.90 trillion, the United States ₦1.73 trillion and Togo ₦1.50 trillion. The five destinations jointly accounted for 38.51 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports during the quarter.
Nigeria’s overall merchandise trade also expanded significantly, reaching ₦41.44 trillion in Q2, up 19.13 per cent from ₦34.79 trillion in Q1 2026 and 5.61 per cent from ₦39.24 trillion in Q2 2025.
Exports provided the major boost, rising to ₦27.02 trillion from ₦21.17 trillion in Q1, representing a 27.64 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. Compared with ₦22.75 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, exports rose by 18.77 per cent.
Imports, however, rose only moderately to ₦14.42 trillion from ₦13.62 trillion in Q1, a 5.91 per cent increase, but were down 12.55 per cent from ₦16.49 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
Checks by our correspondent revealed that one of the biggest shifts occurred in Nigeria’s trade with ECOWAS. Total trade with the regional bloc rose to ₦4.02 trillion, up by 77.2 per cent from ₦2.27 trillion in Q1 and 103.3 per cent from ₦1.98 trillion in Q2 2025.
Nigeria exported ₦3.75 trillion worth of goods to ECOWAS countries during the quarter, while imports stood at ₦269.06 billion, giving the country an estimated trade surplus of about ₦3.48 trillion.
The surge moved ECOWAS from fourth position among Nigeria’s major trading partners in Q1 to third in Q2, when the bloc is treated as a single trading entity. It ranked sixth in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
Within Africa, Togo remained Nigeria’s biggest export destination with ₦1.50 trillion, followed by South Africa with ₦1.34 trillion, Côte d’Ivoire with ₦1.21 trillion, Ghana with ₦461.36 billion and Egypt with ₦455.81 billion. The five countries accounted for 74.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa.
Reacting to the figures in a chat with our correspondent, the Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria was recording some level of diversification in its export structure, although the non-oil sector remained constrained by high production costs and weak competitiveness.
Yusuf said the figures showed a gradual shift from crude oil dominance towards value-added exports, noting that crude oil, which historically accounted for about 80 to 90 per cent of exports, now accounts for about 50 per cent or less.
According to him, exports of refined petroleum products, fertiliser, gas and petrochemicals are becoming increasingly significant.
“Unlike in the past when we were only exporting crude oil, we are now adding value. We are now exporting processed or refined petroleum products, petrochemicals and gas. That, for me, is significant,” he said.
However, Yusuf said non-oil exports remained extremely low because of structural weaknesses in manufacturing and agriculture.
“You need a strong manufacturing sector to boost non-oil exports. Right now, the cost of production is high. Cost of credit is high. Cost of logistics is also very high. Cost of energy is very high,” he said.
He stressed that Nigerian products must be competitive in both price and quality to make a significant impact in international markets, adding that the agricultural sector was still exporting largely primary products, limiting the value derived from such exports.
“Unless we address these structural problems, it will be very difficult to achieve that productivity and competitiveness,” Yusuf said.
He urged the government to reduce production, energy and credit costs, improve logistics and tackle insecurity affecting agricultural production.
“We need to bring down the cost of production. We need to bring down energy costs. We need to bring down the cost of credit. We also need to improve our logistics,” he said.
“In addition, we need to address insecurity, because our agricultural products are being affected by insecurity. Those are some of the things government can do to boost our non-oil exports,” he added.
While India led Nigeria’s export market, China retained its position as the country’s largest overall trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at ₦6.42 trillion. The figure was 13.1 per cent higher than the ₦5.68 trillion recorded in Q1 and 5.8 per cent above ₦6.07 trillion in Q2 2025.
The China relationship, however, remained heavily tilted towards imports. Nigeria imported ₦5.92 trillion worth of goods from China, but exported only ₦506.57 billion to the Asian country, resulting in an estimated trade deficit of about ₦5.41 trillion.
India ranked second among Nigeria’s largest overall trading partners, with bilateral trade of ₦4.21 trillion, while ECOWAS ranked third at ₦4.02 trillion. The United States followed with ₦2.74 trillion, the Netherlands ₦2.31 trillion and Spain ₦2.15 trillion.
Nigeria’s export performance remained heavily driven by petroleum products. Crude oil exports rose to ₦12.91 trillion in Q2, up 15.28 per cent from ₦11.20 trillion in Q1 and 7.93 per cent from about ₦11.97 trillion in Q2 2025.
Other oil products recorded an even sharper increase, rising to ₦10.38 trillion from ₦6.78 trillion in Q1, representing a 53.05 per cent increase, and up 34.08 per cent from ₦7.74 trillion in Q2 2025.
Crude oil accounted for 47.79 per cent of total exports, while major export commodities also included kerosene-type jet fuel, natural gas, urea and other petroleum gases.
On the import side, China remained overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for 41.02 per cent of Nigeria’s total import bill with goods valued at ₦5.92 trillion. The United States followed with ₦1.01 trillion, India ₦924.46 billion, the Netherlands ₦409.81 billion and Germany ₦395.87 billion.
Major import categories included machinery and transport equipment valued at ₦5.46 trillion, chemicals and related products at ₦2.51 trillion and manufactured goods at ₦1.87 trillion. Key imported commodities included ordinary motor spirit, crude petroleum, durum wheat, used diesel and semi-diesel vehicles and motorcycles.
For the maritime sector, the changing trade pattern has implications for cargo flows, vessel calls, shipping routes and port-handling activities. The strong growth in exports to India and ECOWAS markets also highlights the expanding role of Asian and regional trade corridors in Nigeria’s maritime economy.
The Q2 figures therefore point to a trade structure in which crude oil remains dominant, while refined petroleum products, gas, petrochemicals and fertiliser are increasingly contributing to export earnings. The major challenge, as Yusuf noted, is whether Nigeria can translate the growth into stronger non-oil exports by reducing production and logistics costs and improving competitiveness.
