Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could significantly disrupt global energy markets and maritime trade systems, with serious implications for oil prices, freight rates and inflation worldwide, the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) has said.
In a strategic maritime and economic advisory issued on March 1, 2026, SEREC warned that the confrontation presents heightened geopolitical risk, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global crude oil supply is transported daily. According to the centre, any prolonged disruption along this corridor could result in sustained oil price volatility, sharp increases in freight costs, spikes in marine war-risk insurance premiums and renewed global inflationary pressure.
SEREC’s scenario modelling indicates that under sustained tension, crude oil prices could trade between $110 and $140 per barrel, while global freight rates may rise by 15 to 40 per cent as shipping lines reroute vessels and factor in elevated risk premiums. Marine war-risk insurance costs in high-risk corridors could surge by as much as 200 to 400 per cent, a development the centre said would place additional strain on emerging economies through imported inflation and currency depreciation. Prolonged disruption, it added, raises the prospect of global stagflation, combining high inflation with weakened economic growth.
For Nigeria, SEREC noted that elevated crude prices could deliver short-term fiscal gains, estimating that at $120 per barrel, additional oil revenue could amount to between $18 billion and $22 billion annually, potentially lifting GDP growth by 1 to 1.2 per cent. However, the advisory cautioned that these benefits could be offset by rising inflation, projected at an additional 3 to 5 per cent, driven by higher logistics costs and more expensive imported inputs, alongside increased exchange-rate volatility and sharp rises in food and transport prices.
The centre identified the Dangote Refinery as a critical factor in reducing Nigeria’s exposure to external shocks. According to SEREC, the refinery’s operations materially lower dependence on imported refined fuel, reducing vulnerability to freight and insurance cost escalations, easing foreign exchange demand and moderating pressure on the naira. It estimated that imported fuel inflation transmission could be reduced by between one and two percentage points, while also creating opportunities for Nigeria to expand refined product exports across West and Central Africa under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework.
Beyond Nigeria, SEREC said import-dependent African economies face heightened risks of fuel and food inflation, longer shipping routes as vessels divert around high-risk zones, intensifying currency pressures and expanding maritime security demands. Within the African Union region, the centre noted that Nigeria’s refining capacity offers a comparative advantage if integrated into regional supply networks and supported through cooperation mechanisms such as ECOWAS, alongside stronger maritime security coordination in the Gulf of Guinea.
SEREC advised Nigerian authorities to channel any oil windfall into stabilisation measures and infrastructure investment rather than recurrent expenditure, guarantee steady crude allocation to domestic refineries, expand strategic petroleum and refined product reserves, deepen regional trade integration and strengthen maritime security collaboration.
Concluding the advisory, SEREC said the US–Iran confrontation represents more than a geopolitical dispute, describing it as a structural stress test for global trade and maritime systems, and warning that Nigeria’s resilience will depend not merely on higher crude revenues but on disciplined fiscal management, efficient domestic refining, trade diversification and maritime competitiveness. The statement was signed by Eugene Nweke, Head of Research at SEREC.
