4. Nigerians have a new business model.
4. Nigerians have a new business model.
Until 2010, robbery was the preferred crime in West African waters. Criminals would board an anchored or berthed vessel, steal ship’s stores, cash or personal effects and make a quick exit. Things changed, however, in December of 2010, when an Italian tanker was hijacked 120 nautical miles off the coast of Togo. Six pirates transferred 5,000 metric tons of refined oil into an awaiting container then sold the stolen product on Nigeria’s black market for a profit of nearly $5 million (USD). The colossal and almost immediate payoff all but put an end to nearshore robberies and triggered an explosion of deepwater oil theft.
For the Gulf of Guinea’s coastal states, high oil prices and the lack of a refining capacity put refined petrol products at a premium. To meet the demand, organized criminal rackets have developed both the logistical capacity to steal thousands of tons of oil at sea and the means to deliver it to black market buyers. From Ivory Coast to Angola, tankers are hijacked and taken out to sea, where the cargo is offloaded into awaiting containers. Once a buyer is found, a substantial payday is in order. The new low-risk, high-payoff business model signals a costly and potentially long-term paradigm shift in West African maritime crime.
5. Standoff does not equal safety.
Simply steering clear of West Africa’s coastline is not an adequate security measure. Armed criminals with access to the right equipment have demonstrated the ability to reach deeper into the region’s shipping lanes in order to steal petroleum.
Pilfering 5,000 metric tons of oil at sea is no simple task. The time and logistical demands needed to pull off such operations require security and standoff from intervening naval and coast guard patrols. Fortunately for oil thieves, the region’s naval presence is largely limited to state territorial seas that extend 12 nautical miles from the low water mark. By operating beyond the reach of maritime interdiction forces, thieves have virtually unrestricted access to passing tankers and their prized cargo.
6. Kidnappings occur close to home.
As the Niger Delta amnesty deal closes in on its fifth year, thousands of militant youths have found themselves either short-changed on amnesty stipends or left out of the arrangement all together. In the wake of the faltering peace agreement between the government and the Delta’s residual insurgent groups, Nigeria’s waters have hosted a considerable spike in kidnap-for-ransom events.
Like the country’s crime syndicates and their inclination for oil theft, the profit-seeking motives of Nigeria’s militant youths are behind the surge in abductions. While the larger and more organized criminal rackets have the cash and equipment needed to carryout large-scale oil theft, the Delta’s youth militants are limited in reach and resources. However, the bustle of small support vessels that operate near the coastline and service the region’s offshore oil fields provide a target-rich environment for kidnap-for-ransom extortions.
Further Reading: Kidnapped off Nigeria – An American Ship Captain Unveils the Truth
Despite having to carryout abductions close to shore and within range of security forces, the cost-benefit calculus for kidnapping operations is favorable: targets are easily identified – often times with the assistance of corrupt maritime employees; collusion ensures that security measures will be reduced; Western companies are consistently willing to pay hefty sums for the safe return of their employees; and the odds of being arrested or punished are slim.
As sustained instability and growing regulatory burdens force international oil companies to sell their onshore oil fields and move toward deepwater exploration, an increase in offshore infrastructure and maritime traffic is imminent. If security measures cannot keep up with the surge in offshore operations, the waters off of Nigeria’s south could become the continent’s epicenter for abduction and extortion.
7. Ballots, bullets and boardings.
The customarily raucous run up to the US presidential elections pales in comparison to the maelstrom of Nigeria’s election season. Arming supporters to intimidate opponents and protect economic interests is a tradition in Nigerian politics. Long-standing grievances, ongoing dissatisfaction with the federal amnesty policy, and the uneasy political climate could spark a widespread return to on and offshore militancy ahead of the country’s 2015 elections.
Tensions between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) will become further aggravated as the election cycle gets into full swing. However, the greater danger lies in that the election season rearmament may not be a temporary condition. With next year’s proposed termination of the amnesty program, there is no plan for reigning in the violence post-elections. Nor is there a new strategy to promote disarmament, or any safeguard against the rise of a second full-scale insurgency in southern Nigeria.
Should federal and state leaders fail to control election-related unrest, the violence could yield a widespread resurgence in organized militancy – to include offshore attacks on both international oil companies and government interests. These menacing conditions could signal a relapse of politically-inspired piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and scuttle prospects for lasting security in West Africa’s sea lanes.
*Concluded
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