Findings by Shipping Position Daily have shown that concerns are steadily growing across Nigeria’s economic and maritime sectors following the recent threat by the President of the United State of America; Donald Trump to cut support and development assistance to Nigeria over the country’s escalating security challenges.
Although the statement was issued as a warning rather than a firm decision, the ripple effect, our correspondent gathered has generated fears within investment circles, financial markets and trade operators suggesting that Nigeria may be facing a fresh round of economic tension, especially in view of the scale of annual trade conducted between both nations.
Official U.S. data accessed by Shipping Position Daily shows that trade between Nigeria and the United States reached $13 billion in 2024, a 16.5 percent rise from 2023. Goods trade alone amounted to $10 billion, with U.S. exports to Nigeria hitting $4.3 billion, a significant jump of more than 66 percent, while Nigerian exports to the U.S. stood at $5.7 billion. In services, the United States recorded a surplus of $1.7 billion after exporting $2.3 billion worth of services to Nigeria. With such figures forming a major plank of Nigeria’s economic relationship with the USA, fears have emerged that even a diplomatic chill could slow down trade flows, weaken investor interest and introduce new uncertainties into the economy.
Speaking with Shipping Position Daily on the deeper economic implications of the U.S. President’s warning, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, described the development as one that is already affecting Nigeria’s economic perception internationally, even if no actual policy has been implemented. According to him,
“The statement has already generated economic, diplomatic and perceptional consequences for Nigeria. Even if it was made on the basis of incomplete intelligence, the fact that it came from the President of the United States means it has far-reaching effects”, he stated.
He noted that Nigeria’s security challenge is complex and does not resemble a conventional war. Rather, it is an overlapping mix of insurgency, terrorism, farmer-herder conflicts, banditry, kidnapping and several communal crises.
He stressed that the danger of such a pronouncement by US President is not necessarily in its accuracy, but in how investors interpret it. “A threat of military action from a global superpower sends negative signals to investors. It can weaken confidence, trigger capital flight and elevate Nigeria’s risk profile. These things have real economic consequences,” he said.
Yusuf warned that financial markets typically react to perception before reality, explaining that country-risk premiums could rise, bond yields could climb, and pressure could mount on the naira if portfolio investors begin to pull back. “Some of these effects happen quietly in the background before they become visible,” he added.
But while Yusuf focused on the economic and reputational risks, economist and CEO of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, took a different angle, cautioning Nigerians not to confuse the U.S. President’s warning with a direct threat to trade.
In a conversation with our correspondent, he insisted that aid and trade must not be conflated. “Aid is not trade. There is no correlation between the two. Aid is donor funding; a gift. If someone is cutting donor funding, that does not affect your trade,” he explained.
Teriba argued strongly that the warning issued by the U.S. President was being misinterpreted. “He did not say he has cut the aid. He said if Nigeria does not stop the killings, he will stop the aid. That is a warning. If someone says, ‘If you advance, I will shoot,’ you don’t go and publish that he said he will shoot. He said you should stop.”
The economist faulted attempts to focus solely on the potential economic impact while ignoring the human toll of insecurity within Nigeria. He described the situation as one where foreign actors appear more disturbed about Nigerian deaths than Nigerians themselves.
“Your stock market did not go down when hundreds were killed in Benue or Plateau, but someone warns you to stop the killings and suddenly you say the naira has fallen. It shows the kind of country we are,” he said.
Teriba warned that ignoring the core issue could lead to deeper consequences. “If the killings continue, the next step may not be aid suspension; it may be military intervention. And if that happens, that will absolutely stop your trade. That is what should worry you.”
Within the maritime community, where a significant portion of U.S.–Nigeria trade is processed, reactions have also reflected a mix of concern and cautious acceptance.
A chieftain of the Association of Nigerian Licensed Customs Agents (ANLCA), Mr Pius Ujubuonu, told Shipping Position Daily that the U.S. warning could serve as a necessary trigger for Nigeria to confront longstanding governance and security lapses.
According to him, “Nigeria has been thriving on falsehoods. If an intervention is coming because of the way the country is being run, the first impact will be uncomfortable, but if it forces sincerity in governance, then it is a good thing.” Ujubuonu added that Nigeria’s instability has remained a major obstacle to trade, investment and economic growth.
“This country is too blessed for things to be this unstable. If temporary discomfort leads to long-term stability, then it may be worth it,” he said.
When asked whether the U.S. warning has already had any concrete impact, he noted that it has definitely changed internal and external perceptions.
“People who thought their actions were unnoticed now realise the whole world is watching. Whatever is going on here is being recorded globally,” he said.
