Conflict in Yemen risks spilling out into the busy sea lanes that pass it and potentially disrupt the narrow Bab el-Mandeb passage through which nearly 4 million barrels of oil are shipped daily to Europe, the United States and Asia.
Oil prices rose as much as 6 percent on Thursday after neighbouring Saudi Arabia and its allies launched air strikes on Yemen that targeted Iran-backed Houthi rebels fighting to oust Yemen’s president.
The development is a gamble by the world’s top oil exporter to check Iranian influence in its backyard.
Conflict in Yemen risks spilling out into the busy sea lanes that pass it and potentially disrupt the narrow Bab el-Mandeb passage through which nearly 4 million barrels of oil are shipped daily to Europe, the United States and Asia.
Oil prices rose as much as 6 percent on Thursday after neighbouring Saudi Arabia and its allies launched air strikes on Yemen that targeted Iran-backed Houthi rebels fighting to oust Yemen’s president.
The development is a gamble by the world’s top oil exporter to check Iranian influence in its backyard.
“The collapse of Yemen as a political reality and the power of the Houthis will enable Iran to expand its presence on both sides of the Bab el-Mandeb, in the Gulf of Aden and in the Red Sea. Already discrete numbers of Iranian naval vessels regularly sail these waters,” J. Peter Pham of U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council said.
Analysts say Houthi forces do not themselves have the maritime capabilities or the interest to target the Bab el-Mandeb, while warning of Iranian influence.
“If the Iranians were to gain access to a de facto base in some port or another controlled by the Houthis whom they have aided in the latter’s fight, the balance of power in the sub-region would shift significantly,” said Pham, who also advises U.S., European and African governments
The United States and its allies regularly stage naval exercises in the Gulf. The head of U.S. forces in the region said on Thursday the U.S. military would work with Gulf and European partners to ensure the Bab el-Mandeb remained opened.
Militants have launched successful maritime attacks in the area before. Yemen has a 1,900-km (1,181 mile) coastline that also juts into the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.
A suicide bombing carried out by al Qaeda killed 17 sailors on the U.S. warship Cole in Aden’s port in 2000. Two years later, al Qaeda hit a French tanker in the Gulf of Aden, south of the Bab el-Mandeb.
Egypt has said it could not stand by if its interests were threatened.
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