Ocean container teu-mile trade grew 18% year on year in 2024, to 1,171 teu per mile, mainly due to vessel detours to avoid the Red Sea , according to a Clarksons report.
Container teu-mile trade is a measure of the volume of goods transported in boxes, and is often used to analyse global trade patterns.
Front-loading to avoid potential disruptions to the traditional peak period, also caused an early peak season, wrote Clarksons analyst Trevor Crowe.
Global container trade grew 5%, to 211.6 million teu, helping to support shipping demand.
Mr Crowe wrote: “Approximately 700 vessels were re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope for most of 2024, generating a 12% ‘distance kicker’ which supported an impressive 18% growth in teu-mile container trade.
“Underlying teu trade volume growth was also supportive, with a healthy rebound on the key mainlane routes and firm growth between Asia and developing economies. Container port congestion, often a knock-on impact from Red Sea disruption, also impacted, with various “hotspots” at times tying up as much as 4% of fleet capacity.”
Looking ahead, the Gaza ceasefire could usher in overcapacity. Based on expected fleet growth of 5% this year, a resumption of Red Sea transits could cause demand for container shipping to dip by 4%, as opposed to demand growth of 3% if Cape of Good Hope detours continue.
Clarksons has calculated that teu-mile trade could drop by 8% this year if containerships resumed all Red Sea crossings.
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Currently, at least 85% of Far East-Europe container routes have been diverted to the Cape of Good Hope, while up to 90% of other container trades have also been rerouted. Clarksons however, believes that there will not be an overnight return to the Red Sea, as shipping schedules take time to rework.
The shipbroking group said: “There remains a range of factors at play that could delay any changes, including the reaction and next steps of the Houthis, safety considerations, fuel cost dynamics and arbitrage opportunities, and the extent to which concerns around the development of overcapacity in some segments could temper an immediate demand to return to ‘normal’ routing patterns.
“Any increase in transits would also take time to develop and vary by segment, if and when the safety situation evolves, and as liner companies for example, work through adjusting service schedules.”
