Oluyinka Onigbinde
For the first time in a long while, Nigeria’s value of export surpassed her import bill in the fourth quarter of 2021, this is according to data obtained exclusively by our correspondent from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
A breakdown of the data showed that export earnings dropped marginally by 3.5% from $13.42 billion in Q3 2021 to $12.95 billion in Q4 2021, while import bill reduced by 13.8% from $13.74 billion to $11.85 billion in the review period.
The statistics imply that the positive trade balance was driven by a significant decline in import bill rather than an increase in export value.
According to the statistics, Nigeria’s total foreign trade declined by 8.7% in Q4 2021, down from the $27.16 billion recorded in the previous quarter to $24.8 billion.
On the other hand, when compared to the corresponding period of 2020, total merchandise trade appreciated marginally by 1.4% from $24.45 billion recorded in Q4 2020.
On an annual basis, total trade increased by 7.1% in 2021 from $93.26 billion in the previous year to $99.86 billion.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s international trade balance increased significantly from a deficit of $327 million recorded in the previous quarter to $1.1 billion in Q4 2021. Similarly, when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, Nigeria’s trade balance increased by 115% from $7.57 billion deficit recorded in Q4 2020.
The NBS further said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98% in Q4 2021, sustaining a positive trajectory.
“Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98%(year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021, showing a sustained positive growth for the fifth quarter since the recession witnessed in 2020 when output contracted by -6.10% and -3.62% in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 under the COVID pandemic. The fourth-quarter growth indicates a steady economic recovery accounting for an annual growth of 3.40% in 2021,” a report by the NBS disclosed last week.
It further stated that the Q4 2021 growth rate was higher than the 0.11% growth rate recorded in Q4 2020 by 3.87% points and lower than 4.03% recorded in Q3 2021 by 0.05% points.
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The report noted that quarter-on-quarter, real GDP grew at 9.63% in Q4 2021 compared to Q3 2021, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N49,276,018.23 million in nominal terms.
The NBS noted that the performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N43,564,006.29 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.11%.
The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 2021 was higher relative to the 10.07% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 but lower compared to the 15.41% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. 2021 annual nominal growth stood at 13.92%.
A further breakdown of the report showed that in the fourth quarter of 2021, Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.06mbpd and lower than the third quarter 2021 production volume of 1.57mbpd by 0.07mbpd. The non-oil sector grew by 4.73% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2021).
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