In its quarterly market report, Braemar ACM Shipbroking said improving demand, combined with restrained vessel ordering and higher levels of scrapping, were positive developments for shipowners and operators.
“With the current high level of cellular demolition and fairly restrained newbuilding contracting seen in 2014 so far, the container industry has plenty to be positive about,” it said.
In its quarterly market report, Braemar ACM Shipbroking said improving demand, combined with restrained vessel ordering and higher levels of scrapping, were positive developments for shipowners and operators.
“With the current high level of cellular demolition and fairly restrained newbuilding contracting seen in 2014 so far, the container industry has plenty to be positive about,” it said.
“If we continue to witness restraint in post-panamax ordering and shrewd fleet management, the gradual recovery of the liner business should gather momentum.
“If we look towards 2016, we are currently expecting approximately 115 vessels with a combined capacity of 0.79m teu to be delivered, which, with the current orderbook, will increase the size of the fleet by approximately 3%.
“With a year of historically low net fleet growth, the container industry can take a breather and enjoy the benefits of fewer vessels hitting the water that year.
“Any further orders placed this year are likely to have a delivery date of 2017 and beyond.”
The broker predicted that up until the end of 2016, it expected global container demand to increase by around 18%, which is an improvement on the 14.5% increase recorded during the 2011-2013 period.
Meanwhile, vessel owners have been restrained in placing new orders, with the broker describing fleet growth as “fairly manageable” compared with increases in demand.
It predicted that the containership fleet will grow by a further 18% up until the end of 2016, matching demand growth.
The capacity of new orders placed during the first six months of the year is down 17% on the same period of last year, with Braemar ACM Shipbroking estimating that 82 units with a combined capacity of 610,000 teu have been ordered during the period.
And it predicts a slowdown in orders for ultra-large tonnage over the next two years because of the current high level of orders for vessels of this size.
Shipowners have also stepped up their demolition activity this year, with 60 vessels representing 330,000 teu sold for scrap in the first six months. The panamax vessel size bore the brunt of scrapping, although this trend slowed down during the second quarter.
And the broker expected containership demolition to continue strongly for the remainder of 2014, unless daily charter rates post significant and sustainable increases.
Meanwhile, analysts at Clarksons were also positive about the market, with box trade expected to increase by 6% this year and 6.7% next year and container capacity expected to increase by the lower amount of 4.8%.
In the short-term future, supply pressure will be helped by “improving demand overall, along with the elevated levels of scrapping”.
“In addition, the still thin orderbook in the smaller sizes could be good news for the charter market in the medium term,” it said.
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