Nigeria’s crude oil trade with China is expected to expand significantly in the coming months as Venezuelan oil shipments to Asia face severe disruption under an ongoing U.S. blockade, industry analysts say.
China, historically one of Venezuela’s largest oil customers, is forecast to import sharply lower volumes of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 after U.S. forces seized multiple oil tankers and restricted the departure of many vessels from Venezuelan ports. Only about 5 million barrels of fuel oil and crude roughly 166,000 barrels per day — are estimated to be en route to China over the next month, a dramatic drop from 2025’s average of around 642,000 bpd.
The U.S. campaign, which includes a naval “blockade” and the seizure of sanctioned vessels, has led some shipowners to abandon voyages or return to Venezuelan waters to avoid confiscation, further throttling exports to Asia.
The slump in Venezuelan shipments is expected to bolster Nigeria’s crude exports to China, which already imports significant volumes of Nigerian crude and natural gas. Mineral fuels — chiefly crude oil and gas — account for the vast majority of Nigeria’s exports to the Asian giant, making up nearly 90 per cent of total exports, according to trade analysts.
While China also sources oil from the Middle East and Russia, Nigeria is viewed as a relatively stable supplier despite longstanding challenges such as insecurity and infrastructure constraints in its production sector. Chinese national and independent refiners have maintained strong engagement with Nigerian crude, which continues to flow steadily into Asian markets.
In contrast, Venezuela’s ability to sustain shipments to China has been sharply curtailed. Multiple vessels carrying Venezuelan crude have been seized by U.S. forces since mid‑December, and others have turned back after attempting to evade enforcement measures, according to defence and maritime sources.
The knock‑on effect of these developments is already being felt in global oil trade patterns. Leadership in Lagos reports heightened interest from Chinese buyers in securing alternative crude sources as Venezuela’s share of their import mix contracts. Nigerian crude is increasingly seen as a reliable option to fill potential shortfalls.
Although these disruptions could accelerate shifts in Asian import strategies, some Venezuelan oil is still in transit and China has built inventories that provide a cushion against immediate shortages, analysts note.
The evolving situation underscores how geopolitical tensions and enforcement actions — especially those involving major players such as the United States, China and OPEC members — continue to reshape global crude supply routes and trade relationships.
