Nigeria’s crude oil production declined slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd recorded in November, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday.
The data indicate that Africa’s largest oil producer has now fallen short of its OPEC-assigned production quota for the fifth consecutive month, underscoring persistent output challenges despite ongoing reforms in the country’s upstream petroleum sector.
OPEC figures show that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December. Quarterly production data for 2025 further highlight a steady decline over the course of the year, with average output of 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter, rising marginally to 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter, before falling to 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter and dropping further to about 1.42 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
The trend reflects continuing structural and operational constraints affecting Nigeria’s crude oil production capacity, including infrastructure limitations, security concerns and deferred investments.
OPEC compiles its production data using two methods: direct communication from member countries and estimates from secondary sources such as independent energy intelligence agencies. While figures based on direct communication showed a decline in Nigeria’s output in December, secondary sources cited by OPEC painted a more positive picture.
According to these secondary estimates, Nigeria produced about 1.5 million bpd in December 2025, representing a 1.35 per cent increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November. Despite the shortfall against its quota, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Libya, which produced 1.37 million bpd during the same period.
At the wider OPEC level, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 238,000 bpd, based on secondary source data.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange earnings and a major contributor to government revenue. Continued underperformance relative to OPEC quotas limits the country’s ability to fully benefit from favourable global oil prices, at a time when fiscal pressures and foreign exchange shortages persist. The production gap also raises concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to scale up output as OPEC gradually relaxes supply restrictions.
However, domestic production figures present a stronger outlook when condensate output is included. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), contained in its report titled *“Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,”* show that Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.64 million bpd in the first 11 months of 2025.
Condensates are excluded from OPEC’s quota calculations, accounting for the disparity between the crude oil output figures reported by OPEC and Nigeria’s domestic production statistics.
