Nigeria’s crude oil exports are projected to decline by about 14 per cent in March, with scheduled loadings for four major crude grades expected to average roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to preliminary export programmes reported by Reuters.
The projected March loadings compare with about 922,000 bpd scheduled for export in February, indicating a significant month-on-month decline largely driven by sharp reductions in two key offshore crude streams.
Preliminary data show mixed movements across Nigeria’s main export grades. Qua Iboe crude loadings are expected to increase to around 184,000 bpd in March from about 170,000 bpd in February, while Bonny Light exports are projected to rise slightly to approximately 282,000 bpd from 269,000 bpd in the previous month.
However, these modest gains are outweighed by steep cutbacks in offshore grades. Bonga crude loadings are scheduled to fall sharply to about 61,000 bpd in March, down from roughly 139,000 bpd in February. Forcados exports are also expected to decline to around 266,000 bpd, compared with approximately 344,000 bpd in the preceding month.
The net effect of these changes is a lower overall crude oil export volume for March, highlighting continued volatility in Nigeria’s export flows despite ongoing efforts to stabilise production and boost foreign exchange inflows.
Nigeria’s crude oil loading schedules often fluctuate significantly from month to month due to a combination of operational, technical and market-related factors. Security challenges and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft and delays in repair works, have historically disrupted production and exports from key terminals.
Market dynamics also influence export volumes, as refiners’ demand shifts in response to pricing, quality differentials and global supply conditions. As a result, gains in lighter onshore grades such as Qua Iboe and Bonny Light do not always offset declines in larger offshore streams like Bonga and Forcados.
The projected decline in March exports comes at a critical period for Nigeria, as crude oil remains the country’s primary source of export revenue and a major contributor to government finances. Sustained lower export volumes could weigh on oil receipts and limit the fiscal benefits of any improvement in global oil prices, with potential implications for budget implementation, external reserves and currency stability.
Export schedules remain subject to revision, and actual March export volumes may differ as cargoes are rescheduled, added or deferred based on operational developments and market conditions.
Earlier reports indicated that Nigeria’s crude oil exports rose to N37.7 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, underscoring the country’s continued reliance on crude oil as the backbone of its foreign exchange earnings and external trade.
