The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has dismissed a recent newspaper report alleging that Nigeria lost N8.41 trillion to crude oil theft between 2021 and 2025, describing the publication as misleading and riddled with factual and methodological errors.
According to the commission, crude oil losses have plunged by more than 90 per cent in the last four years, a dramatic turnaround credited to strengthened regulatory oversight and coordinated security interventions. Data released by the NUPRC show that daily crude losses fell from 102,900 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to just 9,600 bpd as of July 2025—Nigeria’s lowest level since 2009.
The commission stressed that the disputed report misrepresented publicly available data published under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and ignored the clear evidence of sustained progress in curbing oil theft. It faulted the report’s methodology, particularly its use of a uniform exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar over the four-year period. NUPRC clarified that the official rate was below N430/$1 for much of the period and averaged around N600/$1 even at the peak of theft, meaning the N8.41 trillion estimate was grossly inflated and detached from fiscal realities.
Beyond the flawed exchange rate, the regulator said the report failed to factor in critical industry variables such as operational complexities, international oil price fluctuations, and production dynamics that influence accurate loss assessments.
NUPRC maintained that the sharp decline in losses reflects joint efforts with the Office of the National Security Adviser, the military, oil companies, and other stakeholders using both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to secure oil infrastructure. “This is a monumental reduction and a testament to the collective resolve of government and industry to restore integrity to Nigeria’s oil production,” the commission stated.
The regulator also linked the improved security environment to broader economic gains. Citing recent figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it noted that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.23 per cent, driven partly by increased oil production and improved operational efficiency across the sector.
Among the initiatives credited for the turnaround are the “Project 1 Million Barrels” drive to boost daily output, comprehensive metering audits to ensure accurate measurement, restoration of shut-in production strings, increased rig counts, improved facility uptime, and the development of alternative evacuation routes to avoid pipeline disruptions.
NUPRC affirmed that Nigeria now has the technical capacity to produce more than two million barrels of crude per day and is mobilising operators, service providers, financiers, and other industry players to fully unlock this potential. The commission reiterated its commitment to transparency, accountability, and collaboration to sustain gains in the upstream sector and maximise economic benefits for the nation.
