The once red-hot car carrier newbuilding spree is showing clear signs of cooling, with overcapacity concerns now looming large across the pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) market, according to AXSRoRo’s latest monthly newsletter.
Following four years of record ordering, contracting activity in 2025 slumped to the lowest level in years, even as deliveries hit an all-time high of 75 vessels. AXSRoRo said a total of 133 PCTCs, with nearly 1m ceu capacity, were delivered over the past three years, while another 67 vessels are expected this year – still close to historic highs.
Fleet growth is increasingly at odds with underlying trade developments
“The PCTC market has entered a phase in which fleet growth is increasingly at odds with underlying trade developments,” AXSRoRo noted, warning that ship supply is now expanding far faster than global vehicle trade volumes.
The consultancy highlighted that while Chinese vehicle exports continue to post strong, often double-digit growth, much of that expansion appears to be reshaping rather than enlarging the global car trade. “Rising Chinese exports are substituting for shipments from traditional producers,” the report observed.
Chinese shipyards dominate the current fleet build-up, accounting for nearly 80% of the 276 PCTCs delivered or due between 2023 and 2028. With an orderbook still equivalent to more than one-fifth of global PCTC capacity, the sector faces growing pressure to balance supply.
AXSRoRo cautioned that persistently low scrapping activity is worsening the imbalance. “Unless demolition picks up more decisively, utilisation and earnings are likely to come under pressure,” the report warned.
After years of aggressive investment by established operators and newcomers alike, AXSRoRo predicts the car carrier sector’s next phase “may be less about further expansion and more about adjustment.”
