Summary

Over the course of December global pirate activity decreased by five attacks from the previous month, giving December the lowest level of recorded attacks in 2011. The drop in attacks is largely attributable to a significant reduction in activity off East Africa and in the Indian Ocean, caused by a combination of poor weather and low success rates. One merchant vessel was successfully hijacked by Somali pirates in December, the first in over eight weeks. In West Africa all forms of reported piracy dropped significantly, although the statistics do not reflect the reality of maritime security environment. Seven attacks were registered in Asia, one less than the previous month. Three attacks were also registered in Latin America.
At least 294 crewmembers are currently being held, with many facing detention periods of over 300 days, at a current average of 170 days. One vessel was released from Somalia in December for a reported total of US$11.5 million. 2011’s average ransom amount was US$4.75 million.

Near-term Forecast
East Africa: The risk of piracy remains high despite a dip in attacks and low success rates,
although the continuing northeast monsoon season will push attacks closer to shore, and into traditionally sheltered areas in the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea. A slight increase in attacks may occur as pirates are emboldened by high reported ransom payments and the first successful hijacking of a merchant vessel in eight weeks in December.
West Africa: Fewer reported hijackings are likely as STS operations have been pushed to areas under control of the Togolese navy. Nonetheless, the risk of low level armed robbery remains pertinent, despite a lack of recorded incidents.
Asia: Mostly opportunistic attacks set to continue, with hijackings at sea still a risk.
Latin America: An increase in instances of low level armed robbery may be seen in response to the pressure being placed on criminal activity on land.

Source:  AKE GAC