Carriers are expecting a surge in volumes on the Asia-Europe trade in the coming weeks, which will support attempts to increase prices on the trade in mid-September.
Contacts told Containerisation International there were expectations of a surge in volumes in the weeks leading up to October, as shippers rush to export goods from China ahead of the National Day holiday, which runs from October 1 to October 7.
This would lead to vessel utilisation rates reaching up to 95% and position carriers strongly for a mid-September rate push.
Carriers are expecting a surge in volumes on the Asia-Europe trade in the coming weeks, which will support attempts to increase prices on the trade in mid-September.
Contacts told Containerisation International there were expectations of a surge in volumes in the weeks leading up to October, as shippers rush to export goods from China ahead of the National Day holiday, which runs from October 1 to October 7.
This would lead to vessel utilisation rates reaching up to 95% and position carriers strongly for a mid-September rate push.
Hapag-Lloyd has already reacted to the expected tightening of space and has announced a general rate increase of $500 per teu on services from east Asia, excluding Japan, to all north European and Mediterranean destinations applicable from September 23.
It is understood the expectations of a volume surge and tightening of space in mid-September was one of the reasons that carriers’ attempts to increase prices on September 1 failed, as certain carriers delayed attempts to increase prices, preferring to wait until market conditions were more conducive to a rate push later in the month.
Last week’s figures from the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index show that all-in spot rates on services from China to north Europe slipped week on week by $55 to $1,183 per teu.
During the same time period, prices on services from China to the Mediterranean slipped by $33 to $1,211 per teu.
The price declines came despite carriers hoping to implement September increases of $445-$500 per teu on services from Asia to north Europe. Similar rate increases on services sailing from Asia to the Mediterranean had also been announced.
One contact said he expected the mid-September rate increase to be successful, but perhaps closer to $250 per teu, rather than the $500 per teu for which Hapag-Lloyd is aiming.
Following the October holiday, vessel utilisation rates are expected to decline quickly unless carriers attempt to alter vessel deployment.
In contrast to Asia-Europe, the SCFI index component for services from China to North America increased last week.
On US west coast services, the index jumped by 4% week on week to $1,956 per feu and to the east coast it was up 0.5% to 3,378 per feu.
Analyst Dynaliners said it understood eastbound transpacific carriers had announced a September 1 peak season surcharge after their attempts to implement an August PSS had failed.
Transpacific vessel utilisation rates were tracking at around 90% in August, it added.
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