The downward trend for global freight rates won’t improve much until 2014, analysts claimed this week, despite shipping lines announcing increases.
A better balance between new capacity and demand in 2014 should lead to a modest recovery, according to CIMB in Hong Kong.
Following a record number of deliveries last year, the number of cargo vessels under construction is equivalent to about one-third of the existing global fleet, CIMB’s analysts said on Monday.
The downward trend for global freight rates won’t improve much until 2014, analysts claimed this week, despite shipping lines announcing increases.
A better balance between new capacity and demand in 2014 should lead to a modest recovery, according to CIMB in Hong Kong.
Following a record number of deliveries last year, the number of cargo vessels under construction is equivalent to about one-third of the existing global fleet, CIMB’s analysts said on Monday.
They said there was little that shipping lines could do to improve the situation in the short term, adding that they “did not expect a huge volume of [vessel] demolitions, given the relatively young fleet”.
All-in freight rate levels out of Asia remained finely balanced, despite the surge of traffic before the Chinese New Year being over. According to the World Container Index (WCI), the average spot rate quoted by carriers for cargo from Shanghai to Los Angeles on 26 January remained at US$1,820 per feu, the same as the week before, but still well above the $1,420 quoted just before Christmas.
The all-in rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell over the week by $35 to $1,366 per feu, but this was still well above the rate of $1,230 quoted on 5 January and the $900 quoted just before Christmas.
Sources said the implication was that ocean carriers remained serious about getting rates up. Hapag-Lloyd has just announced an increase of $750 per teu from East Asia (excluding Japan) to Europe, targeted for 1 March.
And CMA CGM has announced increases between February and March, according to shipping industry sources.
Starting form last week, Wednesday for loops from the Indian subcontinent to the US east coast, rates will increase by $320 per teu, $400 per feu and $450 per 40ft high-cube. From 9 February, the rates from India and Pakistan to Europe will go up by $200 per teu and $400 per feu.
From 15 February, rates for India/Middle East–East Africa will increase by $200 per teu; and from 1 March, rates for India and the Middle East to Africa will rise by $150 per teu.
Other CMA CGM services covered by proposed increases include US–Far East ($75/teu, $150/feu & high-cubes); Mediterranean–east coast South America, North Europe–Far East and Mediterranean–Far East (all $200/teu); North Europe–Middle East–Red Sea, Baltic ports–Middle East–Red Sea–Far East, and Mediterranean–Far East (all $100/teu) and Asia–Adriatic ($250/teu).
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